Notice: Editorial analysis that does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation regarding any asset. The figures in this article come from three frozen extractions: November 1, 2026, taken at the first Bitcoin block following the deadline expiration and accompanied by a review of the mtgox.com notice index; October 30, 2026, the day before; and October 14, 2026, from which the hub address ledger and the cross-reference between notices and movements originate, which have not changed since then. The only subsequent figure is the re-reading of balances on November 2, 2026, at block 974,263, noted as such in the text. Primary sources are the public mempool.space API, read only up to the block height of each extraction, and the PDFs published by the Rehabilitation Trustee on mtgox.com, whose sha256 hashes are included in the article. The address labels supporting the starting point are from third parties and are dated: Arkham (November 2 and 5, 2024) and CryptoQuant via CryptoSlate (May 28, 2024). No address is attributed an identity or intent: for each, only what the chain says is stated—how much it received, when, and from where. The measurement is for BTC only: the trust also repays in BCH and cash in yen, and those two series are not measured here. Percentages, aggregates, and block counts are CleanSky's own calculations based on those readings. CleanSky does not receive commissions or referral payments from any mentioned entity.
The Mt. Gox trust repayment deadline expired on October 31, 2026, at 14:59:59 UTC, at Bitcoin block 973,986, and the two addresses holding 34,358.11 BTC spent nothing. Neither before nor after: 129 blocks later, their balances were identical to the digit to those of the previous day, and the spending for both remained at zero. Fifteen days earlier, on October 16, the trustee had published the extension to October 31, 2027, and that document consists of 324 words that were already written in 2024: a diff—the line-by-line comparison of change tracking in any text editor—against the 2025 notice returns three different lines, and all three are dates. The two halves together are the news: the Mt. Gox judicial calendar and the trust's bitcoin flow have remained untouched for years, and the paper that moves the calendar is a template. In the 30 days prior to the last three expirations—2024, 2025, and 2026—0 BTC left the hub, the address that received those 141,686 BTC in May 2024 and from which everything distributed originated.
What did the Mt. Gox trust bitcoin do when the deadline expired on October 31, 2026?
The deadline was written in the trustee's document as "October 31, 2026 (Japan Standard Time)," so the cutoff point was 14:59:59 UTC. The last Bitcoin block before that cutoff was 973,985, at 14:51:47 UTC; the next, 973,986, arrived at 15:00:44 UTC, after the deadline had expired. Between the two, there are no transactions from the measured addresses, nor in the following 129 blocks, read on November 1, 2026. A re-reading on November 2, at block 974,263 and 277 blocks after expiration, returns the same two balances to the digit and the spending for both addresses still at zero.
The time zone changes the result, and the case exists: the 500 BTC entry into the hub on October 31, 2024, at 23:42 UTC, falls within the day for a European reader but already on November 1 in Tokyo, with the deadline expired.
| The Oct-31-2026 expiration, measured in blocks | Value (reading from Nov-1-2026) |
|---|---|
| Cutoff time (end of Oct-31-2026 in Japan time) | 14:59:59 UTC |
| Last block before the limit | 973,985 — 14:51:47 UTC |
| First block after the limit | 973,986 — 15:00:44 UTC |
| Blocks elapsed from expiration to reading (Nov-1-2026) | 129 |
| BTC spent by the two held addresses in those 129 blocks | 0 |
On October 14, 2026, we wrote a threshold in our working notes before knowing the result: if, upon passing the deadline, the two held addresses spent 1,000 BTC or more combined, the assertion that the deadline does not govern on-chain flow would be refuted for 2026. The smallest repayment batch covered by a notice in 2024 was 1,264.696 BTC, and 1,000 BTC is 2.9% of what is held: a low bar. The two held addresses of the Mt. Gox trust spent 0 BTC upon the expiration of the October 31, 2026 deadline.
Nor did the rehabilitation trustee, lawyer Nobuaki Kobayashi, appointed by the Tokyo District Court, speak. Upon re-reading the mtgox.com notice index on November 1, 2026, the last entry was still the October 16 extension: nothing dated October 31 or November 1, no seventh repayment notice, no statement regarding the expiration. The deadline expired in silence on both sides, the paper and the chain.
How much bitcoin does the Mt. Gox trust hold and since when has it not spent it?
The undistributed bitcoin that meets our rule—addresses reached from those labeled by Arkham and CryptoQuant, following a mechanical rule on transaction structure—is almost entirely in two addresses, totaling 34,358.11 BTC. The largest, with 24,051.76 BTC, received that balance on December 5, 2024, and has accumulated 100,814 blocks without a single spend. The second, with 10,306.35 BTC, received it on June 2, 2026, and has 22,043 blocks likewise. Neither has ever signed an outgoing transaction.
| Held address (reading from Nov-1-2026) | Balance (BTC) | Movements | Spending | Blocks without spending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1N7jWmv63mkMdsYzbNUVHbEYDQfcq1u8Yp (received Dec-5-2024) | 24,051.75834095 | 9 | 0 | 100,814 |
14FEEMRhaUwMbhf2rA1cFXmS1Zuk9nc9eq (received Jun-2-2026) | 10,306.34718478 | 1 | 0 | 22,043 |
| Sum of the two | 34,358.10552573 | 10 | 0 | — |
The reference against which that balance is measured is a large transaction: on May 28, 2024, 141,686.20 BTC entered the hub from which everything distributed later originated. The 34,358 BTC held represents 24.25% of that base, 887 days later. The hub has a balance of 0.00000000 BTC and 87 transactions, and its last movement was on June 2, 2026: 22,032 blocks and 152 days without activity.
There is a stronger version: it is not just that the two large Mt. Gox trust addresses are not spending; the entire set of 121 addresses that meet our rule has not sent a single bitcoin outward since June 3, 2026, when 116.2990488 BTC left. That is 21,922 blocks and 151 days without an external outflow of 1 BTC or more, during the five months from June to October 2026 that include the expiration.
The only change from October 14 to November 1, 2026, is an entry of 546 satoshis—0.00000546 BTC—to the larger address on October 25. It is the ninth transaction in its history and the fourth entry of dust—minuscule amounts of a few hundred satoshis—in 2026; the previous eight are between 546 and 700 satoshis. It arrived nine days after the extension notice and six before the expiration, and that coincidence is not interpreted here: no origin, sender, motive, or relationship to the deadline dates is claimed for the incoming dust.
The mempool—the queue of yet-to-be-confirmed transactions—was empty for both addresses at the time of reading: it is a snapshot of November 1, 2026, not a guarantee.
Did previous Mt. Gox deadline expirations in 2024 and 2025 move anything?
The 2024 and 2025 Mt. Gox deadline expirations moved nothing, and there the specific data point becomes a pattern. In the 30-day window prior to the October 31, 2024 expiration, 0 BTC left the hub: the 500 BTC entry that day occurred after the Japanese cutoff. In the equivalent window of 2025, 0 BTC by a wide margin—the previous movement was March 25, 2025, and the next was November 18. In the 2026 window, 0 BTC again, with the last movement on June 2.
| Mt. Gox hub outflows vs. deadline calendar | BTC | Window detail |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days prior to Oct-31-2024 expiration | 0 | the 500 BTC entry is from Oct-31 23:42 UTC, already expired in Japan |
| 30 days prior to Oct-31-2025 expiration | 0 | previous movement Mar-25-2025; next Nov-18-2025 |
| 30 days prior to Oct-31-2026 expiration | 0 | last movement Jun-2-2026; nothing since then |
| From expiration (block 973,986) to Nov-1-2026 reading | 0 | 129 blocks |
That is three expirations out of three without movement, plus the expiration itself. In the last three deadlines, the trustee's date was not the cause of any bitcoin movement in the 30 days prior or the hours following. This does not allow for the claim that it never will be, nor does it predict 2027. However, the contrary narrative—the deadline is approaching, bitcoins are hitting the market—reappeared in the coverage of the October 2026 extension that we tracked, and none of those notes contrasted it with the outflow ledger. To place this balance within the pending bitcoin supply, the framework is in our analysis of the four-year cycle bottom window.
How does the 2026 Mt. Gox extension notice differ from those of 2025 and 2024?
The Mt. Gox extension notice of October 16, 2026, differs from the 2025 one in three lines, and all three are dates. That notice has 324 words in its English version. The October 27, 2025 notice, 324 words. The October 10, 2024 notice, 324 words. A diff -w of the 2026 text against the 2025 one—the operation that highlights changes between two versions of a document, ignoring spaces—returns the notice date line and the two lines of the paragraph setting the deadline. Nothing else.
The stated reason is identical word-for-word in all three: that many creditors have not yet received their repayment because they have not completed the procedures, and that a considerable number have issues in the process. The inquiries paragraph, with its link to the claims system form, is identical. The only things that change are the two deadline dates and the one in the header. Since the 2024 one was already the same template as the 2025 one, the 2026 one is the third literal copy in a row.
| Notice of deadline change (documents published on mtgox.com) | Previous deadline | New deadline | Lead time (days) | Words (English) | diff -w against previous notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-9-2023 | Sep-30-2023 | Oct-31-2023 | 205 | — | other text; accompanies registration extension |
| Sep-21-2023 | Oct-31-2023 | Oct-31-2024 | 40 | — | other text; cites Tokyo District Court by name |
| Oct-10-2024 | Oct-31-2024 | Oct-31-2025 | 21 | 324 | — |
| Oct-27-2025 | Oct-31-2025 | Oct-31-2026 | 4 | 324 | 3 lines, all three dates |
| Oct-16-2026 | Oct-31-2026 | Oct-31-2027 | 15 | 324 | 3 lines, all three dates |
This part is verifiable without trusting us. The sha256—the cryptographic summary that identifies a file byte by byte—of the English PDF of the October 16, 2026 notice is 04cc42f53fc3da176cee86874da1fd35c558e8d9fb0f011aac4d2629c1e8b4ac and that of the Japanese version is bfaf3c39cbc19486dd322da0ec227b8828ad1b79d44c2d1f8449a0f6c2e25dfd. Anyone who downloads the two files from the trustee's site will obtain those strings; if they do not, they are reading a different document.
The hash is useful because there is active confusion about whether the extension exists. As of November 1, 2026, there are crypto information aggregators that continue to present October 31, 2026, as the deadline in effect and claim there is no extension; one states on its own page that its information only goes up to June 2, 2026, meaning it is outdated by design. We do not correct them by name: the primary document is published, dated, and has its sha256, and that settles the matter.
One of the notes from October 20, in Blockhead, writes that the notice "changes only the date": the same idea, mentioned in passing and without showing the comparison. The material to verify it is the word count, the three lines of the diff, and the two hashes, and what emerges are three consecutive copies: 2024, 2025, and 2026, 324 words each.
How many times has the Mt. Gox repayment deadline changed and why do the counts not match?
The documents in the trustee's public index show five deadline changes: four of one year and one of one month. Coverage from October 16 to 20, 2026, did not agree: FinanceFeeds headlined with a "sixth" extension and listed two notices in the body; Blockhead called it the "fourth" and placed the original deadline on October 31, 2023. Both counts are explainable: the first adds notices that do not change the repayment deadline, and the second takes as the origin a date that was already the result of the March 9, 2023 change, which moved the deadline from September 30 to October 31, 2023.
There is external verification where it exists: a piece from the outlet iolite on October 15, 2026, published one day before the notice, lists the notices of September 21, 2023, October 10, 2024, and October 27, 2025, with lead times of 40, 21, and 4 days. It matches to the day our three central rows, to which we added the 2023 change that the piece does not include and the 2026 one. It also said that no extension had been announced, which was true for another twenty-four hours.
The lead time with which the Mt. Gox trustee announces the extension is not decreasing: 205, 40, 21, 4, and 15 days. The 2025 notice was the most rushed, with a four-day margin, and the 2026 one returned to fifteen. With five observations and a change in direction in the last one, no trend is suggested: only that the 2026 lead time was nearly four times greater than that of 2025.
What part of the bitcoin that left the Mt. Gox trust has a public notice covering it?
When the Mt. Gox trustee actually distributes, he announces it: 91.49% of the net bitcoins that left the Mt. Gox hub—98,183.835 BTC—moved within 24 hours of a repayment notice in BTC and BCH. It is a pattern so clean that it turns the opposite case into a signal.
| Cross-reference between notices and hub outflows (May-28-2024 to Nov-1-2026) | BTC | % of hub net |
|---|---|---|
| Covered by a repayment notice, with movement within 24 h | 98,183.835 | 91.49 % |
| Without any public notice covering it | 9,121.383 | 8.50 % |
| Internal: returns to an address in the set | 5.925 | 0.01 % |
| Outflow since the last noticed repayment (Mar-25-2025), already included in previous rows | 301.931 | 0.28 % |
The 9,121.383 BTC without a document covering them consist of three episodes: 8,819.563 BTC in November and December 2024, 185.521 BTC on November 18, 2025, and 116.299 BTC on June 2, 2026. It is not claimed here that these bitcoins were sold or that they respond to anything in particular, but only this: there is no public notice from the trustee explaining them, whereas for the 91.49% covered, one exists.
It has been 586 days since the last bitcoin repayment covered by a notice, that of March 25, 2025, and in all that time, 301.931 BTC have left the Mt. Gox trust hub: 0.28% of what passed through it. During this drought, two annual extensions have been published.
The June 2026 movement provides another lesson in on-chain reading. One press note described it as "10,422.65 BTC." That figure is the transaction input, not what moved anywhere: of that, 10,306.34718478 BTC went to the address that holds them as of November 1, 2026, and 116.29914662 BTC returned to the hub as change. Adding inputs instead of net outputs inflates the movement by the amount of the change.
What does the on-chain reading of the Mt. Gox trust bitcoin on November 1, 2026, not measure?
It does not measure how much Mt. Gox creditors have been paid. Between the hub and a creditor's account are the exchanges designated by the trustee and their own queues. That approximately 107,311 BTC have net left the hub does not say how many people have the money, and that 34,358 remain inside does not say how many are waiting.
It does not measure BCH or cash in yen. The trust repays in three series, and one is measured here. This matters when reading circulating figures: the "142,000 BTC, 143,000 BCH, and 69 billion yen recovered" in the press mix the three and have no accessible primary source, because the plan materials are behind authenticated access. That is why the basis for all the above is the on-chain consolidation of May 28, 2024.
It does not attribute identity or intent to any address. The trustee does not publish addresses: the starting ones carry a third-party label, with date and source, and for each, only balance, movements, and dates are stated.
And the perimeter does not match that of the aggregators. Arkham's aggregate gave 34,387 BTC as of September 30, 2026, and our rule gives 34,358: the difference is 29 BTC in addresses that their label reaches and our rule does not, and it is declared as such. The automatic classification of destinations between custody and external outflow is not reliable and supports nothing: it only governs the held balance, where 119 of the 121 accepted addresses have zero.
Twelve years after the bankruptcy of February 2014, 24.25% of the 141,686 BTC consolidated in May 2024 remains in addresses that no creditor controls. The legal framework where this occurs changed in 2026: Japan reclassified crypto-assets, and we covered it in the reclassification of crypto under the Japanese FIEA.
What is to be verified regarding the Mt. Gox deadline before October 31, 2027?
Two of our corrections regarding the Mt. Gox deadline, with dates. The first: a 2026 notice does exist, published on October 16, which moves the deadline to October 31, 2027. Our reading on October 14 said the opposite, and it was true that day—the last entry in the notice index was then from December 2025; it ceased to be true forty-eight hours later.
The second: the expiration block was 973,986. Our two previous estimates failed, and both are included with their error. On October 14, we calculated 973,877 assuming the nominal ten minutes per block: a 109-block deviation. On October 30, we corrected it to 973,990 with the rhythm measured between the two readings, 572.8 seconds per block: 4 blocks. That is the difference between assuming the chain's rhythm and measuring it, and that is why the November 1 reading was done on the first block after the limit and not on an estimate.
From what was gathered in our search on November 1, 2026, no piece measures what happened on the chain during the expiration: coverage stops at the extension, from October 16 to 20. We do not claim that no one has measured it, only that it is not in what we found.
The following remains open, with the threshold written in advance in each case:
- The 2027 notice. If the one to be published before October 31, 2027, is again the same 324 words with the dates changed, it will be four literal copies in a row; if the stated reason, the inquiries paragraph, or any line other than a date changes, this article will need to be rewritten.
- A seventh repayment notice. If it appears and covers the 9,121.383 BTC that currently have no document, that row of the cross-reference changes.
- A spend without notice. If the two held addresses spend 1,000 BTC or more without a notice in the preceding 24 hours, the 91.49% pattern falls.
All three are verified with the same material: two addresses that anyone can consult and a 324-word PDF.