Notice: Editorial analysis, not financial advice or recommendation: it measures prices from an options book and does not suggest buying or selling a put. Four dated and unmixed readings from the options book of Deribit, the exchange where these contracts are listed: Nov-5-2026 at 20:18 UTC, Nov-6 at 13:08, Nov-9 at 14:33, and Nov-11 at 06:36 UTC; CoinMetrics closes were read at that final hour. Probabilities are risk-neutral: they are prices, not forecasts. Items marked as "CleanSky calculation" are proprietary derivations. CleanSky does not receive referral payments from the mentioned exchanges.
As of November 11, 2026, neither the November 13 nor the November 20 options expiry on Deribit list a strike at $58,525 (the strike is the price at which the contract gives the right to sell), the level that resolves our cycle bottom thesis published on September 16: a Bitcoin daily close below that figure before the end of November 16. In four readings of the same book over six days, the Nov-13 expiry has not had a single contract of open interest (OI, live contracts) below $62,000: zero out of the 12,207.6 read on the 11th at 06:36 UTC, compared to 10,863.6 on the 5th. The Nov-20 expiry did move: it lists a 60,000 put with 124.3 contracts out of 4,119.9 —3.02%— and none at $58,525. Current pricing reflects higher brackets: a 0.74% chance of settling below $66,500 on Nov-13 and 1.92% below $62,500 on Nov-20, upper bounds of the threshold. The 22.88% drop required by the threshold on November 6 has occurred in 1.76% of eleven-day windows since 2022 in the CoinMetrics series.
What put strikes does Deribit list for November 13 and 20, 2026?
The $58,525 threshold is the June 30, 2026 low in the CoinMetrics PriceUSD daily series, and the thesis establishing it is ours: the cycle bottom has not yet arrived. Since September 16, the series has accumulated 56 closes without dropping below the threshold, with the lowest being November 10: $73,661.00, which is 25.86% above it (CleanSky calculation).
Reaching that level requires a 20.66% drop from the Deribit BTC index on November 11 at 06:36 UTC ($73,763.72). Deribit settles at 08:00 UTC and there is no expiry on the 16th: the verdict falls between the Nov-13 expiry, which covers until the Nov-12 close, and the Nov-20 expiry, until the Nov-19 close.
On November 6 at 13:08 UTC, the Nov-13 expiry listed 21 put strikes between $65,000 and $95,000, and the Nov-20 expiry listed twenty with the same floor. On the 11th, the Nov-13 expiry lists 25 and remains anchored at $65,000; the Nov-20 expiry dropped to the 60,000 put on the 9th and remains there, $1,475 above the threshold (CleanSky calculation).
The first strike covering the threshold remains the 58,000 put for November 27, eleven days after the verdict.
What does a digital by put spread measure?
A put is insurance against a price drop: it pays the difference if the price ends below its strike. The November 27 58,000 put and the 60,000 put of the same expiry only differ in the range between those prices, so the difference between their reference premiums —the mark at which Deribit values each contract— divided by the $2,000 width and multiplied by the index, gives the implied probability of ending below the midpoint, $59,000: the digital by spread, P(S<K) ≈ (P(K2) − P(K1)) × index / (K2 − K1). It measures that midpoint rather than the extremes —the 65,000-68,000 digital measures staying below $66,500, which is $7,975 above the threshold— and the 0.0001 BTC tick moves it between 0.15 and 0.38 percentage points.
What implied probability did the Deribit options market give to Bitcoin below $58,525 on November 6?
The four expiries with their lowest spread and Black-76 —the 1976 Black formula for options on futures— at the exact threshold, using the implied volatility (IV, the one assumed by the contract price) of each strike (Deribit prices from Nov-6-2026 at 13:08 UTC, CleanSky calculation):
| Deribit Expiry (days to Nov-6-2026) | Put Spread | $58,525 Threshold Inside? | Digital (mark) and level measured | Black-76 at $58,525 | Put OI ≤ $62,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-13 (6.79) | 65,000-68,000 | No | 3.29% (below $66,500) | 0.76% (extrapolated IV 77.17) | 0 of 12,238.9 |
| Nov-20 (13.79) | 65,000-70,000 | No | 8.35% (below $67,500) | 2.47% (extrapolated IV 66.40) | 0 of 2,696.4 |
| Nov-27 (20.79) | 58,000-60,000 | Yes | 2.66% (below $59,000) | 3.33% (interpolated IV 57.93) | 7,642.0 of 31,270.4 |
| Dec-25 (48.79) | 58,000-60,000 | Yes | 5.69% (below $59,000) | 9.35% (interpolated IV 51.70) | 33,406.5 of 55,820.3 |
The "extrapolated" tag for Nov-13 and Nov-20 indicates that their IV is projected $6,475 below the lowest listed strike that day, into unpriced territory; and the digitals are upper bounds, because what falls below $58,525 also falls below $66,500 and $67,500. The terminal probability —ending below the threshold on expiry day— ranged from 3.29% to 8.35% with the November 6 digitals and from 0.76% to 2.47% with Black-76 at the exact threshold. The thesis is resolved by barrier: a single daily close below is sufficient, and the reflection principle —touching a level is at most twice as likely as ending below it— doubles those bounds.
Why are neither a put's delta nor its implied probability a forecast?
A put's delta —how much its price changes when the underlying moves by one dollar— and the probability of ending below the strike are two different numbers: delta is N(−d1) in Black-76 and the risk-neutral terminal probability is N(−d2), the mass of the distribution below the strike, which is always higher for a put. With prices from November 11 at 06:36 UTC, the Nov-13 65,000 put has a delta of 0.55% and a terminal probability of 0.64%; the Nov-27 58,000 put has 1.59% and 2.11%. Our implementation reproduces the delta published by Deribit (−0.0055 vs −0.00554 in the former).
And neither is a forecast: an option price includes what the risk seller charges, and in the tails of puts, the variance risk premium and skew —the volatility slope between strikes— cause implied probabilities to overestimate realized frequency. This bias works against our own thesis: if it exists, the real probability of a close below $58,525 before November 17 is lower than the 0.74-1.92% from November 11 and the 3.29-8.35% from November 6. Furthermore, a low probability that comes to pass does not invalidate the measurement: what is published are the prices Deribit was quoting at those times.
How many times has Bitcoin dropped 22.88% in eleven days since 2022?
The verdict is decided on the CoinMetrics daily series, not on the Deribit book. Across its 5,788 rows between 2011 and November 5, 2026, we count the days whose minimum close in the following seven, eleven, or fourteen days falls below the starting close multiplied by 0.7712 —the move required by the threshold on November 6— (CleanSky calculation).
| Horizon: frequency of a drop ≥ 22.88% on CoinMetrics PriceUSD daily closes until Nov-5-2026 | 2011-2026 | 2015-2026 | 2022-2026 | Last window with the case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 2.65% (153/5,781) | 1.39% (60/4,320) | 0.79% (14/1,763) | starts Jan-29-2026 |
| 11 days | 4.85% (280/5,777) | 2.97% (128/4,316) | 1.76% (31/1,759) | starts Jan-25-2026 |
| 14 days | 6.56% (379/5,774) | 4.10% (177/4,313) | 2.39% (42/1,756) | starts Jan-22-2026 |
Bitcoin closed 22.88% or more below a starting close in the following eleven days in 1.76% of windows since 2022: 31 out of 1,759, across six episodes. The last one starts on Jan-25-2026 and is resolved with the $63,494.69 close on Feb-5-2026, so the probability is low but not zero.
That frequency and the Deribit prices do not describe the same event: the former counts what has already occurred in the series of closes, while the latter prices a range starting further above the threshold. The cycle bottom calendar, which supports our thesis, points in the opposite direction to both.
What changed in the Deribit book between November 5 and 11?
On November 5 at 20:18 UTC, following a day that closed 5.82% below the previous one, the Deribit index was at $75,838.30. Four readings of the same book over six days:
| Measure in the Deribit options book | Nov-5, 20:18 UTC | Nov-6, 13:08 UTC | Nov-9, 14:33 UTC | Nov-11, 06:36 UTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deribit BTC Index | $75,838.30 | $75,884.40 | $74,459.91 | $73,763.72 |
| Required drop to $58,525 | −22.83% | −22.88% | −21.40% | −20.66% |
| Minimum put strike, Nov-13 exp. | $65,000 | $65,000 | $65,000 | $65,000 |
| Minimum put strike, Nov-20 exp. | $65,000 | $65,000 | $60,000 | $60,000 |
| Terminal digital, Nov-13 exp. | 2.53% (below $66,500) | 3.29% (below $66,500) | 2.48% (below $66,500) | 0.74% (below $66,500) |
| Terminal digital, Nov-20 exp. | 8.19% (below $67,500) | 8.35% (below $67,500) | 2.53% (below $62,500) | 1.92% (below $62,500) |
| Black-76 at $58,525, Nov-13 exp. | 0.33% | 0.76% | 0.17% | 0.05% |
| Black-76 at $58,525, Nov-20 exp. | 1.25% | 2.47% | 1.56% | 0.90% |
| Put OI ≤ $62,000, Nov-13 exp. | 0 of 10,863.6 | 0 of 12,238.9 | 0 of 14,220.7 | 0 of 12,207.6 |
| Put OI ≤ $62,000, Nov-20 exp. | 0 of 2,426.0 | 0 of 2,696.4 | 62.4 of 3,087.4 | 124.3 of 4,119.9 |
| OI of Nov-27 58,000 put | 3,453.7 | 3,652.0 | 4,112.5 | 3,932.1 |
| IV of Nov-13 65,000 put | 54.41% | 62.97% | 64.72% | 67.15% |
| DVOL (hourly close) | 40.04 (20:00) | 41.45 (13:00) | 40.64 (14:00) | 39.46 (06:00) |
The row that doesn't move says the most. The Nov-13 expiry reaches 06:36 UTC on the 11th without a single contract of open interest below $62,000 —the fourth consecutive reading at zero— while its total puts grew from 10,863.6 to 12,207.6 contracts. The book expanded, yet demand for protection at the level deciding the thesis failed to appear on any day.
Black-76 at the exact threshold drops for the fourth time in that expiry: 0.33 → 0.76 → 0.17 → 0.05%. Each prices an event with a different timeframe —Nov-13 had 6.79 days remaining on the 6th and 2.06 on the 11th— so the series measures the same level at four distances from expiry: with two days left, time decay is overpowering the rise in implied volatility.
The only movement in favor of the thesis is in the Nov-20 expiry: open interest below $62,000 doubled between the 9th and 11th, from 62.4 to 124.3 contracts, representing 3.02% of its 4,119.9. They are all in the 60,000 put, none at $58,525. Protection exists, but further out: 20.34% of the November 27 put open interest and 59.57% of the December 25 put open interest have a strike equal to or lower than $62,000.
The Nov-20 digital is comparable between the 9th and 11th —same 60,000-65,000 spread, same level, below $62,500— and it drops from 2.53% to 1.92%. It is not comparable with the 6th: the spread was 65,000-70,000 and measured below $67,500, a different event. Crossing the four readings is only possible via Black-76 at the exact $58,525.
The volatility the book assigns to the Nov-13 65,000 put rose across all four readings, from 54.41% to 67.15%. DVOL —Deribit's 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index— moved in the opposite direction: it closed at 39.46 at 06:00 UTC on the 11th, the lowest of the four readings.
What does each estimator say about a Bitcoin close below $58,525 before November 17?
Six figures for the same event and what each one measures:
| Estimator for "Bitcoin below $58,525 before Nov-17-2026" | What it measures exactly | Figure | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Digital 65,000-68,000, Nov-13 exp. (Deribit) | Settling below $66,500 on Nov-13: upper bound | 0.74% | Deribit, Nov-11 06:36 UTC |
| Digital 60,000-65,000, Nov-20 exp. (Deribit) | Settling below $62,500 on Nov-20: upper bound | 1.92% | Deribit, Nov-11 06:36 UTC |
| Black-76 at $58,525, Nov-13 and 20 exp. | Settling below the exact threshold, with IV extrapolated at 92.12% and 61.25% | 0.05-0.90% | Deribit, Nov-11 06:36 UTC |
| Delta of Nov-13 65,000 put (Deribit) | N(−d1): not a probability. Its N(−d2) gives 0.64% for settling below $65,000 | 0.55% | Deribit, Nov-11 06:36 UTC |
| Realized frequency at 11 days, 2022-2026 | Windows with minimum close ≥ 22.88% below starting point: 31 of 1,759 | 1.76% | CoinMetrics, series until Nov-5 |
| Reflection barrier bound (2× digital) | Any close below $58,525; doubles bounds for $66,500 and $62,500 | 1.48-3.84% | CleanSky calculation, Nov-11 |
What is being measured on November 13 and 17 regarding Bitcoin's $58,525?
Three thresholds with time and source, written before the outcome:
| Date and Time (UTC) | What is read | Pre-written Threshold | What crossing it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-13-2026, 08:05 | delivery_price of Deribit's 13NOV26 expiry, with state = closed | $65,000 | Below: settlement enters the range to which the Nov-6 book gave at most 3.29% (its digital measures below $66,500) |
| Nov-13-2026, 08:05 | Digital 58,000-60,000 of the Nov-27 expiry on Deribit (1.48% on Nov-11) | 10% | Above: the headline no longer describes the book and must be rewritten |
| Nov-17-2026, 00:05 | CoinMetrics PriceUSD daily closes from Nov-5 to Nov-16, inclusive | $58,525 | Any close below: the thesis is correct despite the book giving it a low single digit |
Of the twelve closes in the window, six are resolved as of November 11 and none dropped below the threshold: $75,803.13, $75,826.53, $75,724.41, $74,967.72, $75,161.13, and $73,661.00, from the 5th to the 10th. Six remain, from the 11th to the 16th, and since the last one, the threshold requires a 20.55% drop (CleanSky calculation).
If at least one close below $58,525 appears, the cycle bottom thesis is correct, and it will be recorded that the Deribit book capped that outcome at 0.74-1.92% terminal on November 11 and 3.29-8.35% on the 6th. If the 16th ends without any, the thesis is falsified and the question changes: if the cycle bottom calendar, which in 2015, 2018, and 2022 took between 364 and 406 days from the peak, has stopped describing Bitcoin, it must be stated with the same level of detail.
In both outcomes, the fact of November 11 remains: the lowest strike Deribit lists in the verdict window, the Nov-20 60,000 put, is $1,475 above the $58,525 that decides the thesis, and the Nov-13 expiry enters its final two days without a single contract below $62,000.